• Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

CenterTao.org

taoism, taoist thought, buddha, yoga, tai chi, shakuhachi

  • Home
  • Tao Te Ching
  • Ways
  • Facebook Group
  • Blowing Zen

Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Google [Odds Are, It’s Wrong] for a look into how science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics. It reminds me of chapter 71’s, Not to know yet to think that one knows will lead to difficulty. The patient search for truth pales next to our hunger for the answer, or any answer. Science is humanity’s best attempt to counteract this urge, but it can fail as this article points out. This is especially true for the softer sciences, e.g., sociology, economics, medicine. The eye-opening information in this report helps remind me that we are animals first, and whatever else we think or wish we were a distant second. Here is an excerpt:

Especially since the days of Galileo and Newton, math has nurtured science. Rigorous mathematical methods have secured science’s fidelity to fact and conferred a timeless reliability to its findings.

During the past century, though, a mutant form of math has deflected science’s heart from the modes of calculation that had long served so faithfully. Science was seduced by statistics, the math rooted in the same principles that guarantee profits for Las Vegas casinos. Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot.

It’s science’s dirtiest secret: The “scientific method” of testing hypotheses by statistical analysis stands on a flimsy foundation. Statistical tests are supposed to guide scientists in judging whether an experimental result reflects some real effect or is merely a random fluke, but the standard methods mix mutually inconsistent philosophies and offer no meaningful basis for making such decisions. Even when performed correctly, statistical tests are widely misunderstood and frequently misinterpreted. As a result, countless conclusions in the scientific literature are erroneous, and tests of medical dangers or treatments are often contradictory and confusing.

Replicating a result helps establish its validity more securely, but the common tactic of combining numerous studies into one analysis, while sound in principle, is seldom conducted properly in practice.

Experts in the math of probability and statistics are well aware of these problems and have for decades expressed concern about them in major journals. Over the years, hundreds of published papers have warned that science’s love affair with statistics has spawned countless illegitimate findings. In fact, if you believe what you read in the scientific literature, you shouldn’t believe what you read in the scientific literature.

Wow! Experts in statistics have been sounding the alarm for decades. Alas, like balancing the government’s budget, preparing for disaster in general or global warming in particular, the expert’s warnings will go unheeded until some awful visitation descends upon them (i.e., the population), as chapter 72 cautions.

As with much in life, science will always be two- steps forward, one-step backwards. Consider the following quotes from experts in the field.

“Despite the awesome pre-eminence this method has attained … it is based upon a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of rational inference, and is seldom if ever appropriate to the aims of scientific research.” —William Rozeboom, 1960

“Huge sums of money are spent annually on research that is seriously flawed through the use of inappropri­ate designs, unrepresentative samples, small samples, incorrect methods of analysis, and faulty interpretation.” – D.G.Altman, 1994

“Many investigators do not know what our most cherished, and ubiquitous, research desideratum—’statistical significance’—really means. This … signals an educational failure of the first order.” – Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong, 2006

“These classical methods [of significance testing] are in fact intellectually quite indefensible and do not deserve their social success.”- Colin Howson and Peter
Urbach, 2006

“A finding of ‘statistical’ significance … is on its own almost valueless, a meaning-less parlor game.“ – Stephen Ziliak and Deirdre McCloskey, 2008

“The methods of statistical inference in current use … have contributed to a widespread misperception … that statistical methods can provide a num‑ber that by itself reflects a probability of reaching erroneous conclusions. This belief has damaged the quality of scientific reasoning and discourse.”  – Steven Goodman, 1999

“What used to be called judgment is now called prejudice, and what used to be called prejudice is now called a null hypoth-esis…. It is dangerous nonsense.” – A, W F. Edwards, 1972

Apr 24, 2010 by Carl Abbott
Filed Under: Observations

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Monthly Chapter 70 (pandemic era)

See previous chapter postings

Search

Overview

Is Taoism a Religion?   Read more...
What is Taoist thought?   Read more...
What is the root of thought? Read more...

Who is CenterTao?

CenterTao is a non-profit corporation founded in 1982.     Read more...

Subscribe via Email

Tags

addiction balance belief bio-hoodwink Buddha children civilization consciousness desire ego emergent property emotion expectations fairness instinct family fear food freedom freewill future happy hunter gatherer imagination independance instinct knowing language learning mind mysterious sameness need parents pleasure v pain religion responsibility science stress symptoms point of view tai chi tao thinking understanding what is tao worry yoga

Recent Comments

  • MosesK on Is Rock Conscious?
  • Carl Abbott on Alleviating the Hoarding Disorder
  • Carl Abbott on Instinctive Free Will
  • Erin on Alleviating the Hoarding Disorder
  • Carl Abbott on Small ‘t’ Taoists
  • J on Small ‘t’ Taoists
  • Carl Abbott on Buddha’s Truths Pertain To All Life
  • NoahPayne95 on Trump and the Mandate of Heaven
  • Peter on Buddha’s Truths Pertain To All Life
  • Ariel Avalos on The best tao? (road, way, principle, speak, think)

Past Observations

  • Taoist Thought
  • The Tradeoff
  • Buddha’s Truths Pertain To All Life
  • Trump and the Mandate of Heaven
  • Refreshing Redundancy
  • The Year Is 1915
  • We All Know We Don’t Know
  • Who are you? (Part V)
  • Who are you? (Part IV)
  • Who are you? (Part III)
  • Who are you? (Part II)
  • Who are you?
  • The Word Trap
  • Stressors of Comfort and Security
  • “Right state of peaceful mind”
  • What Climate Catastrophy?
  • Straight Poop on the Paleo Diet
  • Fear & Need Born in Nothing
  • Science Proves Buddha Right!
  • Alleviating the Hoarding Disorder
  • Amazon mother
  • Cultivating Character
  • Cultivating Ego
  • Passing judgment is healthy if…
  • Necessity is the Mother
  • Practice what you preach
  • Of Mountains, Molehills and the Supernatural
  • Civilized Insanity
  • Ancient Signs Of Modern Behavior
  • The Good Old Days
  • Modus Operandi
  • Alone with Thought
  • A proper sense of awe
  • CenterTao Group Anyone?
  • Loving Your Eco-System
  • Where does the fault lie?
  • Taoist secrets
  • Laws as Symptoms, not Solutions
  • Loss Aversion Management
  • Mind Over Milkshake
  • Flow Triggers
  • Naturally Racist
  • BRAIN
  • Managing Our Disorders
  • Bono & Musk on Creativity
  • The Harmless People
  • Born Again Taoist
  • Free Willers Anonymous
  • Instinctive Free Will
  • Stupidly Intelligent
  • The Proof is in the Pudding
  • A Wealth of Happiness
  • Natural Happiness
  • Is Happiness In Your Choices?
  • Profound Connections Enlighten
  • Religion… an Opiate?
  • Is Gen Y Unhappy?
  • Remember the Disease
  • The Pendulum Swings
  • You are Immortal!
  • A Rose By Any Other Name
  • Emotion Speaks… Literally
  • I Look, But Do I See?
  • Just like Us, Just like Them
  • Science’s Baby Steps
  • Worthy of a Noble Life?
  • Who says chickens are stupid?
  • Seeking Out Untruth
  • Earn It to Learn It
  • Counterbalancing I.Q.
  • Mind Run Away; Run Away Mind
  • “The rich suffer in comfort”
  • Self-Predation
  • Finding Your Original Self
  • Feeding the Worry Gene
  • Hold the Knowable
  • Good Enough Is!
  • Ponder Between the Lines
  • Soaking in Inspiration
  • A Tao of Parenting
  • Buddha’s Work
  • Insatiably Curious at 70?
  • Breathe Into It
  • Tao of Government
  • Will-to-Live, Free or Otherwise
  • Begin New Years with a smile
  • The Why Of It
  • The Truth vs. The Middle
  • Dumbfounding
  • A Taoist Creed
  • Of Free Will, I Am
  • Discomfort and Pain
  • Undecided? You bet!
  • Siren’s Song of Politics
  • “It’s the Economy Stupid”
  • Networks of Networks of….
  • Can we pull the plug?
  • Yamaguchi San
  • “Fixation on same same”
  • Beware: the Blind Spot
  • And Then There Was Fire
  • Tao and Democracy
  • What’s Not the Elephant?
  • Upping the Ante
  • A Word to the Wise?
  • A Bee with Personality
  • Necessity, the Mother
  • Guilt, Shame and the Name Game
  • The Secret to Happiness!
  • It Began Now
  • I am foolish of human mind also?
  • Seat of Consciousness
  • What Follows Loss of the Way?
  • Placebo Effect
  • Imagining a Better Way
  • Who or What Do You Trust?
  • Giving Your Life a Gift
  • The Only Safe Escape
  • Use Non-Responsibility
  • Be Careful What You Wish
  • Jack of All Trades, Master of None?
  • We only understand what we know
  • Two Paths
  • The Trans Tribal Tao
  • Resistance is Futile
  • A Brother is a Brother
  • Really, Have We No Clue?
  • Why?
  • Gone Fishin’, Back Soon
  • Check One Off the Bucket List
  • Opiate of the Masses
  • The Wealthy Poor
  • Dreaming the Way
  • Sobering up!
  • Oh My Aching Bones
  • The Utility of Knowing What You Don’t Know
  • Naturally Unnatural, Naturally!
  • Naked Thought
  • Success Thru Failure
  • I, Amoeba
  • Why Man is King
  • Ethics as an Emergent Property
  • Loss is Gain; Gain is Loss
  • “… Strive On Diligently”
  • Is Pain the Constant?
  • Ants Are Us
  • Feeling Animal-ness
  • Pleasure Isn’t Well Being
  • Is Rock Conscious?
  • See No Evil
  • Keep ’em guessing?
  • Thou Shalt Not…
  • You Are What You Own
  • Priorities
  • We!
  • You Know
  • Who You Are Determines Who I Am, & Visa Versa
  • An Improper Sense of Awe
  • Thoughts and Ducks Quacking
  • The poetry of it all
  • So, I’d like to ask…
  • Don’t trust anyone under 60
  • Imagination knows no end
  • In Praise Of Nothing
  • It’s Simply Nature’s Way
  • The Truth About Lies
  • It’s Time We Changed Our Name
  • Fear Rules
  • Nothing’s Certain but Death and…
  • Reward, Fear & Need
  • He Who Conquers Self
  • Democracy as Myth
  • So, You Want Enlightenment, Eh?
  • When Is Attachment Good?
  • Let Sleeping Dogs Lie
  • The Story Trumps Truth
  • Water in Mind
  • Why God?
  • Playing With Dolls
  • Belief in Nothing is Dangerous
  • Illusions, Everywhere I Think
  • Wandering Mind Is Unhappy Mind
  • Love
  • Small ‘t’ Taoists
  • Beyond Spooky
  • My Battle With Tobacco
  • John Cleese, a ‘Taoist’?
  • The Nutty Things We Do
  • A Symptom’s Point Of View
  • Fear Is The Bottom Line
  • Change we can believe in?
  • Science, Religion, Truth
  • Children Know What Adults Forget
  • The Spirit of Yoga
  • The less I think, the more I know
  • Exquisite Balance
  • Skullduggery is rampant in nature
  • What Shapes How You Think?
  • Tao As Emergent Property
  • Balancing Difference With Similarity
  • Thinking clouds consciousness
  • Where Is Freedom?
  • Decisions Decisions
  • Poor Thais And Rich Swedes
  • Time’s Arrow
  • Desire and Contentment
  • Learning What You Know
  • We’re Not So Different After All
  • Chairs: One of Our Big Mistakes
  • Gossip, Hysteria, News
  • The Family Purse
  • Swarm Savvy
  • SETI… Quixotic SETI
  • The Worry Gene
  • Odds Are, It’s Wrong
  • Bathtub Tai Chi
  • How the Hoodwink Hooks
  • Omega-3 and Vitamin D
  • He Who Speaks Does Not Know, but…
  • Hunger: A Natural Stimulant
  • Know Truth, Live True
  • Why Not Protest To Raise Taxes?
  • Self Integrity, Slime, and Karma
  • A How-To for Extinguishing Self
  • Significant Others
  • Headstands and Apes
  • The Future Takes Care of Itself
  • Teachers and Students
  • Are You As Happy As You Should Be?
  • Keeping Birthday Happy
  • Why Do Idiot Savants Run Things?
  • Trust But Verify
  • Are You A Beliefaholic?
  • Sage Advice from Wall Street
  • Of Course It’s Alive!
  • What Am I Doing?
  • I understand, but do I know?
  • Just In: We’re All Nuts!
  • The Future is Now!
  • Peeking Through the Covers
  • Innately Ethical
  • Can You Believe What You See?
  • Suicide Just Doesn’t Work
  • A Hypochondriac’s Miracle Cure
  • An Essential Taoist Secret
  • Just How Big Is The Gap?
  • The Theory of God
  • Who is Right?
  • You Are Who You Are By Default
  • Cave Man Shakuhachi?
  • Into the Jungle?
  • Swimming Tai Chi Spermatozoa Style
  • Are you out of touch with nature?
  • It was a dark and stormy night…
  • Cease Treading Water and Just Sink
  • Enjoy What You Do – or – Do What You Enjoy?
  • The Glare Hides ‘Out There’ From View
  • The illusion of ‘moment’
  • Consciousness Physics
  • A Taoist Solution to Gay Marriage
  • Emotion Clear-cuts Perception
  • Right Mindfulness, Attentiveness, and Concentration?
  • The best tao? (road, way, principle, speak, think)
  • The trick lies in not believing, yet believing
  • What is ‘the Tao’ actually?
  • Think what you believe? Believe what you think?
  • Yin Yang, Nature’s Hoodwink
  • Public Tantrums
  • Understanding Understanding
  • Wealth plays out in odd ways
  • Peaches and Pleasure
  • Looking Through the Looking Glass
  • Even a little progress is freedom from fear
  • Religion: The best placebo?
  • Correlation’s ‘Prime Directive’
  • The Cost of Compassion
  • Can you say what you think?
  • Grinding Out Correlations
  • “Do you believe in angels?”
  • The Amazonian ‘Taoists’
  • Is Enlightenment Something or ???
  • Family Life
  • Who’s a Sage?
  • The Gifts Given – Paid In Full
  • King Kiwi
  • Blowing with the sea
  • In praise of kale
  • Always be a beginner
  • It’s Like Magic!
  • How do we know what is true?
  • Am I Bored or Just Content?
  • Do Good Christians Make Good People?
  • PS
  • The Decider
  • Peeking in on Nature’s Hoodwink
  • How to Know You’re Happy
  • It Is Spooky
  • Of What Is The Taoist Model Symptomatic?
  • Is ‘Free Will’ the Only Option?
  • Butterflies have wings; we have minds
  • Mind in Body in Mind in Body…xin
  • Such Synergy
  • Where There’s Passion (fire), There’s Blindness (smoke)
  • Seeing the world ‘out there’
  • Schrödinger’s cat
  • Tai Chi Video
  • Life Is Struggle, Happiness Is Contentment
  • What’s With All The Hair?
  • Tao Views of the Dow
  • Biology’s Blinders: WYSIWYG
  • Those Who Speak Do Not Know. So, Why Speak?
  • Welcome to CenterTao.org 2.0!

Postscript

Here is 2022’s Postscript.

My 80-year-old mind continues poking deeper; however, I’ll not be updating this website any longer… There’s enough already… who needs more?

For those seriously interested, see Taoist Thought (which sells at cost). I intend to continue updating this book with my latest observations and revisions until I draw my last breath.

2004-2015 Forum Archive

Click here to browse a read-only archive of all discussion that took place on this site between 2004 and 2015; over 3000 posts!

Copyright © 2023 Carl Abbott · Log in